By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) – New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Monday U.S. monetary policy is “well positioned” to deal with a high level of economic uncertainty generated by the war in the Middle East, as he expressed expectations that once the current inflation surge has abated, the central bank can again turn its attention to lower rates.
“The future is difficult to see, and the risks to both sides of our mandate have increased,” Williams said in a speech before a gathering held by the Cynosure Group in New York City. “The extent and duration of the effects of supply disruptions and higher energy prices that are emanating from the Middle East conflict are key factors that will shape the global economic outlook,” he said.
Williams noted that high inflation, mixed job market signals and uncertainty about the war present “an unusual set of circumstances” for Fed policymakers.
Williams told reporters after his remarks that when it comes to the future of monetary policy, “I don’t feel, with all the uncertainty today, that we are in position to provide strong guidance about where interest rates are likely to be in the next several meetings.” But he also said “I don’t see anything in the data today” that suggests the need for a rate hike “in the near term.”
He said he expected resilient economic growth of between 2% and 2.25% this year amid mostly stable job market conditions, with unemployment holding at a level between 4.25% and 4.50%.
But inflation, challenged by tariffs and energy costs, will likely stay at around 3% this year before moving back to the Fed’s 2% target, Williams said. He added that inflation expectations are also mostly steady while warning that energy price rises could be worse than expected.
“Market expectations of the future path of oil prices are fairly benign, but several plausible scenarios entail more severe dislocations in both prices and quantities,” Williams said. He added that the Iran war “could result in a larger and broader-based supply shock that has more severe adverse consequences for inflation and economic activity.”
UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK
Williams’ remarks were his first public comments since the U.S. central bank last week decided to leave interest rates unchanged. Fed policymakers continue to be in a wait-and-see mode with monetary policy as they face considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook due to the war.
That conflict, particularly the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, has driven up energy prices sharply. Fed officials are facing an outlook of rising inflation pressures coupled with the prospect that the energy price surge will also depress demand and create risks for the job market.
Three regional Fed bank presidents supported the central bank’s rate decision last week while objecting to the continued inclusion of language in the monetary policy statement that suggests the next move will be a cut in borrowing costs.
Those three officials – the presidents of the Cleveland, Dallas and Minneapolis Fed banks – argued in the wake of the Fed meeting that both monetary easing and tightening were possible.
Williams said in his remarks that it is natural to see more disagreement between policymakers in times of uncertainty and change. But he added that even with all of the opposing votes last week against the Fed retaining an easing bias, “I would say there was far more agreement about where policy is today” than that vote indicates.
Williams told reporters he completely supported the Fed’s policy language and noted the statement’s outlook for interest rates is about “the broader kind of contour of where interest rates are today relative to where I expect.” The Fed “will need to cut rates at some point in the future” as price pressures move back to target, he said.
In other comments, Williams declined to address a question about whether or not the central bank would expand its currency swap lines beyond the current counterparties.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul Simao and Daniel Wallis)
Comments